By Miles Wray

Entering the 2015 NBA Draft, one of the most unpredictable mysteries was the fate of University of Washington center Robert Upshaw.

In his first and only year as a Husky, Upshaw blocked an incredible 10.8 shots per 100 possessions, with the same wingspan and ceiling-less potential of a top-10 pick. But NBA teams have to invest in both the person off the court as well as the talent on it: Upshaw had been kicked off of not one but two college teams. He was dismissed from UW after 19 games in 2014-15, and lasted only 22 games for Fresno State in 2012-13.

Along with other highly talented “character concern” players Cliff Alexander (Kansas) and Christian Wood (UNLV), Upshaw would go undrafted. Even though a large handful of the second-rounders actually selected will, if historical trends continue, never make the league, teams were unanimous in deciding that Upshaw was too problematic to take a chance on.

The Los Angeles Lakers invited Upshaw to the Summer League, and then training camp, on a mostly unguaranteed contract. In some ways the Lakers are the worst possible team for a player like Upshaw: even high lottery picks D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle must watch a post-prime Kobe Bryant endlessly heave up shots instead of being given the best resources to explore their own development. In other ways, the Lakers were the best possible scenario for Upshaw: a huge portion of the team’s roster is currently made up of late second-rounders (Ryan Kelly, Robert Sacre) or undrafted players (Tarik Black, Marcelo Huertas). A roster spot was imminently attainable for Upshaw.

So how did Upshaw start the season with the Los Angeles D-Fenders of the NBDL? And how, a month-plus later, is he shooting only 35.6% from the field and already slipping out of the D-Fenders’ nightly rotation?

Whatever transgressions got Upshaw removed from both of his NCAA teams, a reality of the NBA is that all manner of sins can and will be forgiven for the sake of victories. After all, both Alexander and Wood have received NBA minutes -- and NBA experience, and an NBA paycheck -- with the Portland Trail Blazers and Philadelphia 76ers, respectively. In the end, Upshaw’s most crucial “character flaw,” if you will, might just be one that is plainly visible on the court. As Mike Schmitz put it in his invaluable pre-draft video scouting report on Upshaw: “Motor comes and goes.”

To me, it looks clear that the main factor preventing Upshaw from being a positive contributor at even the D-League level are the dramatic possession-by-possession inconsistencies in his effort. Upshaw is continually being beat by players who are smaller, less agile, less skilled -- and far hungrier.

One reason that Upshaw’s field goal percentage is so low is that he effectively “loses” many of his post-ups by the time he receives the entry pass, because he has not fought for sufficient position. On this play against the Reno Bighorns, Upshaw (wearing #24 in purple) allows himself to be pushed well outside of the key by Vincent Hunter, who stands nearly half a foot shorter than Upshaw, at 6’7”:

Upshaw does not use his size to his advantage, and is content to shoot a fading jumper, which glances off the side of the backboard.

Against the Oklahoma City Blue, Upshaw again lost a positioning battle with Dakari Johnson, another undrafted center from the Class of 2015. This time, Upshaw doesn’t even manage to get the shot off:

Lack of offensive polish would be forgivable, though, if Upshaw was providing tenacious defense on the other end of the floor. Alas, Upshaw has been consistently inconsistent in giving a quality effort in this half of the game as well. Here, in the fourth quarter of a close game, Upshaw (and the rest of his team) lazily backpedal and get beaten back down the court after a made basket:

When Upshaw was on the Lakers’ squad in the preseason, Los Angeles played against Israeli team Maccabi Haifa. Although the game was a complete blowout, Upshaw only received limited minutes, and didn’t put forth transition effort in his short moments on the floor then, either: (Upshaw wore #12 in the preseason.)

In Upshaw’s brief preseason moments against actual NBA talent, the effort put forth by established NBA players rendered the match-up no contest. Here’s the 6’8” DeMarre Carroll racing in from the perimeter to beat Upshaw to a rebound, ensuring the Toronto Raptors’ chance to secure a quarter-ending two-for-one:

Later in the same game, shortly after lottery bust Anthony Bennett put Upshaw on a poster, Upshaw allows Bennett to collect an offensive rebound even though the Raptor had twisted his ankle and was hobbling around:

And yet! There are still brief glimmers that show Upshaw’s outstanding talents as a player -- his abilities to pull of plays that many of his scrappier peers simply cannot do. For instance, I love this skip pass from the post, a beautiful assist that Upshaw pulls off with patient awareness of the dwindling shot clock:

Also: Upshaw isn’t helpless on defense, just inconsistent. While he could be more tenacious in securing post position on the following possession, Upshaw also does not concede position. He then provides a solid contest to force a low-percentage shot, and recovers to collect the rebound:

This is the type of unspectacular but solid play that would earn Upshaw a call-up to the big show if this was how he always played.  

Whatever Upshaw’s past transgressions were, Upshaw at least says the right things in interviews. There are other tangible indications that he has truly focused on improving his game, such as dramatic summer weight loss and increased shooting range. (Upshot confidently took and drained an early-shot-clock 3-pointer in his NBDL debut.)

Still, earning a call-up to the NBA will require more dramatic improvements and attention to detail on Upshaw’s part. Watching him play, I can’t help but think of Andre Drummond, another huge center who emerged from college as an incredibly raw prospect, with some “character concerns” (albeit not legal concerns) as well. Although Drummond was younger than Upshaw was in the college season before they entered the draft, Upshaw actually had significantly better collegiate statistics than Drummond:

	Age	Points Per 40	Block %	Reb %	FT %	Defensive Rating
Upshaw	20	17.6	17.4	18.7	43.4	91.4
Drummond	18	14.1	9.9	14.9	29	96.3

And yet Drummond is the most important player on the Detroit Pistons, and will likely receive a nine-figure contract this summer, while Upshaw is so far an inconsistent D-League bench player. Consider the opposite career paths of these two players as a cautionary tale: no matter how naturally talented a player is, there is no spot for anybody in the professional game who does not exert maximum competitive effort on a day-by-day, play-by-play basis.

Statistics via Basketball-Reference.