By Miles Wray

Some people have qualms with ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus statistic, the most recent high-profile attempt at a comprehensive metric to rank NBA players, but for the most part, the RPM leaderboards show that the players we consider superstars really are the best in the league. We’ve got Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Russell Westbrook, and LeBron James in the top five, separated from the rest of the league by a fair margin. That fits. 

Actually, nearly every player in the top 20 on the RPM leaderboard received, at the least, significant All-Star consideration. Every player but one: Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets. Jokic was drafted in the second round of the 2014 Draft, played the 2014-15 season in his native Serbia, and is averaging 20 minutes a game for the lottery-bound Nuggets, mostly coming off the bench. Uh, what?

Is this a mistake in how RPM is calibrated? Well, no. Jokic is putting up a statistically dominant season as long you’re looking at any rate statistic -- that is, looking at his per-minute production instead of focusing on his modest per-game averages of 10.0 points and 6.4 rebounds. Jokic sits 14th overall in the league in RPM, 13th overall in Win Shares per minute, and 19th overall in PER. 

Since Jokic is in the middle of something of an anti-hype machine in Denver -- the Nuggets are very near the bottom of the league in attendance -- his name is hardly being mentioned as a serious Rookie of the Year candidate alongside the supremely hyped and supremely talented Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis. The truth is, Jokic compares statistically very well to Towns, with perhaps the main difference being that Towns has received significantly more minutes from the start of the season, and Jokic has simply played superior to Porzingis. (Jokic is only about six months older than Porzingis.) If Jokic does not land at a significantly high spot in the Rookie of the Year voting, that will be the fault of the voters and not Jokic himself. 

So how is Jokic putting up this statistically dominant numbers? As a 6’10” stretch-five, Jokic’s game is built on court intelligence and skills -- dribbling, shooting, passing -- in lieu of notable athleticism. Here’s how his coach, Mike Malone, described Jokic’s skills in a January interview:

He’s a guy that nobody really talks about. Which is great. He came in this league, no one knows about him, and people are starting to figure out who he is. His skill level, his shooting, his passing, the touch that he has, his IQ, are ready uncanny for a kid that is 20 years old and a rookie. And he’s only going to get better. [...] He could be our best passer. I mean, Emmanuel Mudiay’s a hell of a playmaker. But some of the passes that Jokic makes are -- you look at yourself and say, “That was an unbelievable -- how did he see that?”

 
Here are four of Jokic’s primary skills that I see him using to gain advantages for his team, possession by possession: 

1. Physical Toughness
The NBA and its fans have a love-hate relationship with the gigantic European shooter. While we love the dominant jump shooting of a Peja Stojakovic or a Dirk Nowitzki, we also revolt at the apparent defensive indifference of an Andrea Bargnani or Vladimir Radmanovic. While Jokic is shooting a remarkable 37.7% on three-point shots this season, his game is not built on outside shooting (61 total three-point attempts on the year), and he relies equally on his offensive and defensive prowess. 

Look at Jokic (wearing #15) aggressively fight for positioning and totally disrupt the post game of 2013 lottery pick Alex Len:



Physicality doesn’t need to be limited to the defensive end on the floor. Jokic earns a bucket here by sealing off Jon Leuer as he cuts to the ball:


The Nuggets’ defense improves by a notable six points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor.

2. Spatial Awareness
Jokic is a very intuitive player, and is statistics aren’t necessarily so great because he is always making dominant plays -- they’re so great because he is rarely making poor plays. That might not sound like a high compliment, but: if it were easy to avoid making poor plays, then everybody would be doing it. 

Jokic’s intelligence comes through in watching his natural awareness of how to maximize floor spacing for his team’s advantage. This is huge because Jokic is in the unusual position of being all over the floor: he’s shooting threes and he’s defending centers in the post -- or maybe he’s defending another floor-stretching big. 

Look at how Jokic smartly leaves his man to apply double-team pressure while also pushing the opponent towards the baseline corner, the most limiting spot on the floor. While Jokic does not get the steal in either scenario, his pressure is instrumental in allowing Denver to overload one-half of the floor and get a turnover:





Jokic is also constantly making great off-ball cuts on offense. Look at how he directs power forward Darrell Arthur -- in his seventh NBA season -- before cutting open for a dunk:



3. Handles 
Malone also mentions in the above interview that Jokic grew up playing point guard, a skillset that is absolutely paying off dividends now. Jokic can be a one-man fastbreak because, when he pulls down a rebound, he doesn’t need to spend two or three valuable seconds looking for the point guard to hand the ball to:




4. Passing 
This is my personal favorite strength of Jokic’s, and you can see that Malone singled out as perhaps a team-best strength in the interview above. (Keep in mind that Jameer Nelson, of more than 3,000 career assists, is also on the Nuggets’ roster.)

Jokic is actually in elite historical company for players at his size (6’10”) and age (21). The only players who have contributed a higher assist percentage while being at least that tall and at least that young are: Giannis Antetokounmpo (this season), Kevin Garnett, Blake Griffin, and Lamar Odom. The highlight reels of Jokic’s plentiful assists will only get longer and longer as time goes on:







I think his ability to free teammates for shots with absolutely ingenious passes are the feature that ultimately makes Jokic’s rookie season stand out as incredibly unique. The ceiling on Jokic’s career has yet to be discovered.