Western Conference Contender Watch: Does Houston Have A Problem?

Western Conference Contender Watch: Does Houston Have A Problem?

Is a Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals matchup a foregone conclusion? Maybe not. A familiar contender has emerged.

Feb 28, 2018 by Cleft Fielder
Western Conference Contender Watch: Does Houston Have A Problem?
The harsh reality for most any professional league throughout the world is that the moment a season begins, a good percentage of that league’s fans know their teams aren't ready to compete for a championship. 

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The harsh reality for most any professional league throughout the world is that the moment a season begins, a good percentage of that league’s fans know their teams aren't ready to compete for a championship. 

Over time, some fans of teams that started the season with mild expectation of contention ultimately realize “maybe next year.”

With a defending champion as powerful as the Warriors are, most NBA fans fall into one of these two categories. Still, there is hope, ranging from Texas to Canada. 

Each week, we will revisit this very topic, from West or East, asking the question, “Who can win it all in June?”

1. Golden State Warriors

We start with the champs, a team competing for far bigger things than just another title. 

The Warriors, should they win again, will insist — if they don’t already — that their team is one of the best to ever play. Three championships in four years is special enough — especially when we factor in that the lone loss came in a seven-game title fight, while also battling injuries, following the best regular season in NBA history, at the hands of one of the top players of all time. 

As defending champs once again, they look like a team anxious to get the “real season” started, complaining about calls far more than any focused team should or would. But don’t read into that too much. They are unlikely to lose more than a game or two heading into the Western Conference Finals. 


As the season winds down we will take deeper looks into the favorites to win it all. One interesting note about the Warriors that struck me: Durant has a fair case to be named the league’s top defensive player. He’s fourth in blocked shots per game and one of just two perimeter-based players in the top 25. Yet, Golden State’s top two performing defensive lineups do not include him. 

That means Steve Kerr can find rest for his offensive star without being concerned that the opponent will go on a huge scoring run while he sits. That is a luxury during the postseason — one that the Rockets do not have when James Harden rests.

2. Houston Rockets

If we ignore history and only focus on the season being played out now, there is an argument that the Houston Rockets are the best team in the NBA. With the best record in basketball — and armed with the knowledge that the team is 30-1 when Chris Paul, Clint Capela, and Harden are all active — Houston has the style and personnel to beat any team four times in a seven-game series. 

The Rockets take and make more 3s than any other team (42.5 attempted per game, 15.5 made per game) and it is an acceptable reality that, in any series, they can sink 20-plus 3-point attempts in multiple games. When we accept, as fact, that they are likely to win any game in which that happens, and that it can happen against any opponent, we can make the argument that no team is a lock to beat the Rockets. 


Houston is good enough to win twice no matter how well the opponent plays, and good enough to win twice when their opponent isn’t special. And if the slower pace of the playoffs scares you as a Rockets fan, consider that the team has been on a recent winning tear despite playing at one of the slowest paces in the league during that run. Having two future Hall of Fame primary ball handlers in Harden and Paul allows them to gain almost as many advantages in the half court game as they do in transition or quick ball push after giving up a made basket. 

On the offensive end, Houston is every bit as potent as Golden State, regardless of style of play.

3. San Antonio Spurs

The only real challenger to either team out West is the Spurs. That just happened with the news this week that Kawhi Leonard is about ready to make his return to real action in practice. 

San Antonio was no threat without him, though credit has been earned for staying in the top four of the West this long. 

It isn’t easy to picture the Spurs as a team that will be able to knock off both the Rockets and Warriors, but we cannot forget what Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals looked like last May. Until Kawhi went down with an injury, the Spurs were destroying Golden State — and only a fool would suggest that they had no chance to win that series. History says otherwise, given the strategic talent of Gregg Popovich and the good fortune of having what might have been the best player of the series in Kawhi. 


In any one series, the team that has the best player can always have a chance at winning four games in seven. It’s hard to believe Kawhi can get to his best form possible in less than two months, but, for now, we have to assume it can happen. 

The Spurs' best lineup is currently: Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Pau Gasol. That lineup is scoring 122.8 points per 100 possessions and allowing 92.6, a difference of 30.2 that ranks as one of the top five-man lineups for any team this season. Plug Kawhi in for Anderson or Gasol and what would you guess happens? 

Last year those lineups were just good, not outstanding, as Aldridge was not the impact man he has become in Kawhi’s absence — which brings us to the central question about the Spurs once we accept that Kawhi is all the way back: Can the two of them coexist?

Paul and Harden both help carry lineups while the other is resting, as do Stephen Curry and Durant. Both teams have a lineup that is an offensive juggernaut utilizing both of their top guys; Golden State’s “Death Lineup” of Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Durant, and Draymond Green is one of the best offensive groupings any fivesome has produced this year (131.7 points per 100). Houston counters with Paul, Harden, Luc Mbah Moute, Ryan Anderson, and Capela (123.9 per 100). The Spurs' lineup listed above with Kawhi at power forward can possibly defend those lineups, but can it score enough? 

Only if Kawhi and Aldridge figure out how to excel together.

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