Western Conference Contender Watch: Who Believes?

Western Conference Contender Watch: Who Believes?

The Spurs are out. The Trail Blazers are in. We examine the Western Conference contenders as of mid-March.

Mar 14, 2018 by Cleft Fielder
Western Conference Contender Watch: Who Believes?
Our first look out West focused on the obvious pair of teams that seem destined to meet in the conference finals—plus the San Antonio Spurs. But the NBA game is fast and so, too, is the slippery slope of staying relevant in the chase for a title. 

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Our first look out West focused on the obvious pair of teams that seem destined to meet in the conference finals—plus the San Antonio Spurs. But the NBA game is fast and so, too, is the slippery slope of staying relevant in the chase for a title. 

The Houston Rockets are roaring, the Golden State Warriors miss Steph Curry, and the Spurs are not even in the top eight anymore. Here is a closer look at the Western Conference title contenders as of mid-March.

San Antonio’s Out

It might seem counterintuitive to eliminate the Spurs just as it appears more likely Kawhi Leonard will return soon. He’s such a special player that his mere presence on the floor can transform a struggling team into a suddenly powerful and efficient one. 

On paper, anyway. 


The reality is far different. Leonard returning to his level of play from last May seems impossible, for starters. There just isn’t enough time for him to reach that level, even if he played later this week (which is not yet expected). More importantly, San Antonio’s current 10th-place position means that even if it can claw back into a top eight spot, the likelihood of it being higher than No. 7 is low. 

Thus, in just a month’s time, knowing to this point Leonard has only played a little 3-on-3, it’s just not smart to expect the Spurs to knock out Houston or Golden State in round one—though I would give them a better shot at the upset if the meeting were to occur later in the postseason, providing Leonard with more opportunity to get his legs and his game back.

If, in two weeks, Leonard is back and doing better than expected, we can revisit this discussion. 

The Trail Blazers Are In

I was wrong not to include them when I first discussed Western Conference contenders. As a likely three seed, Portland has a real opportunity to beat both Golden State and Houston. 

Remember what has been discussed here before: The key for the underdog is to get to the series and then hope good fortune can help a team pull through—which is what we saw two seasons ago when Cleveland came back to beat Golden State. 

The Cavs have to apologize for nothing, they won the title fairly and were deserving champs. Good fortune, quite clearly, benefited them a great deal, just as it hurt them the season prior when both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving went down.

As of today, only the Trail Blazers can be expected to beat the Warriors or Rockets in the event that either were to lose a key player. Portland has been terrific as the season winds to a close, building a potent identity with a future that looks great, as well.


When you think of Portland, the backcourt comes to mind, and with good reason. Damian Lillard is one of the elite scorers in the world, with adept passing skills and game management talent, as well. He is deserving of some MVP votes come April. And CJ McCollum is having another outstanding season as one of the top shooters in the NBA. 

But this is not a team that is just built around two great scoring guards anymore. Consider the Blazers' important win Monday night at home against Miami, a tough and defensive-minded team. Portland’s first five offensive possessions were rim attacks or post feeds, and it didn’t make a shot that wasn’t a paint bucket or a free throw until a brilliant "and-1" from 3-point range by Lillard with 6:51 left in the first. 

This is a “pound people” inside and play downhill team now, with a defense that has been the league’s best in the last month and now ranks seventh overall. The Trail Blazers were 21st last season in defensive efficiency. 

No, Portland is not likely to beat the top two teams four times in a seven-game series. But if those teams are shorthanded, as Golden State was when losing to Portland last week, the Blazers can win the series. Lillard’s 44 points beat Kevin Durant’s 50 in February when each team was healthy, proving something. Portland can slug with teams now, protecting the rim with Jusuf Nurkic and Ed Davis, or outscore them with the NBA’s second-best 3-point shooting team.

The Rockets Are Still Soaring

Houston has just one loss since a late January road loss at New Orleans. It came last week in Toronto, by three points, after a horrible first quarter put the Rockets in a double-digit hole. The 16 points scored in that opening quarter against the Raptors was the team’s lowest quarter total since scoring 19 at Utah on the second night of a back-to-back that started in Denver on Feb. 25.

So the team’s only hiccups have essentially been one bad quarter in its second consecutive night playing at altitude and one quarter north of the border that was filled with missed open looks from deep, contested layups at the rim, and two open floaters—one of which was an airball by Trevor Ariza from 5 feet away on the game’s opening possession. 

Including that Pelicans loss, the Rockets have won 19 of their last 21, with the losses coming by a combined five points and a total winning margin of 246 points.

Yes, Houston is wrecking the NBA. 

Thirteen of those 19 wins are against teams in serious playoff contention, so it’s not as if the Rockets are just beating up tanking teams. 

Harden leads the league in isolation sets per game—something we’ve discussed in this spot previously—and he is scoring on those isos very efficiently. But there is another offensive tool that Houston uses like a sledgehammer, beyond its willingness to launch 40-plus 3s any night: the Chris Paul-Clint Capela pick-and-roll, with Harden alone on one side and two shooters spaced on the opposite side. 


Capela will screen and then roll down the middle, just a foot or 2 away from the midline on the side Harden is on. Harden’s defender has to make an instant decision. Does he leave the league’s most devastating scorer in space for a moment or stay home and then pinch on Capela if Paul throws him the ball? 

The problem is that, now, Capela can catch an early “pocket pass” from Paul and cover 16-plus feet with one dribble, dunking over any weakside help that arrives. Capela has taken 87 percent of his shots at the rim and he leads the NBA in field goal percentage. Getting to the rim is key. It takes some skill to handle the pass and navigate tightly contested space in the blink of an eye. Capela does that with ease now, which only opens up Paul and Harden more when defenses try to shut that dunk down.

Nothing To See In The Golden State

When a team has the history like the Warriors have, no late-season ennui is cause for concern. 

Golden State is dealing with an injury to Steph Curry and simply awaiting the playoffs. 

There are some questions about how the Warriors' bench will match up to what could be at least two tough series in the West before even getting to the Finals. But, until we hit April, there isn’t much to grab ahold of, here.

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