This looks to be the most competitive round one in the NBA Playoffs we have seen in some time. Here’s what I will be looking for in the first game of every series in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards

How are Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan playing in Game 1? 

We know the Raptors have a history of losing these games, so any win, by one point even, can help relax a paranoid fan base and give the team a boost of confidence. That sounds strange for the top seed but it is, indeed, the case. 

While Toronto has a great bench and this team has had far more success beyond just what its backcourt produces this year, the Raptors are still driven by their two All-Stars. In their disappointing losses, both players have struggled mightily. 

What makes them special is their skill sets combined with relentless and confident attack mode play. So how they do in this regard is key. Specifically, are they having success early in Game 1, and then, how do they respond to failure? Lowry launching 3s when his defender (especially when a big man is switched onto him and backs off) is under the 3-point line is a common sight. 

If he is missing early and stops shooting, this is a bad sign. And we can imagine the crowd groaning with each miss, the air in the building leaking out. DeRozan has been worse in previous playoff games, a player who in the past didn’t rely on his perimeter shot but rather getting to the line, thus the struggle when he couldn’t get those same foul calls that he earned in the regular season. 

This year he has taken more 3s than ever before and had a career year in assists per game, while his free-throw rate has dropped—meaning he has a more well-rounded game for the playoffs now. More focused on playmaking, less on just getting fouled, this version of DeRozan combined with a confident Lowry gives the Raptors their best chance to cruise in round one against a talented Wizards team.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers

Can Cleveland find a defensive lineup that is above average? 

The Cavs were an awful defensive team before the large influx of new players, and thanks to injuries and little practice time, they remained a poor defensive group. Perhaps they will use this time before game one to tighten up a bit on their schemes. Since they can focus on just one opponent, that can help their defensive cohesion, too. 

Fortunately for Cleveland, it faces an average offensive team, though the Pacers are not without potent offensive lineups. Indiana’s best fivesome features three dynamic guards, with Cory Joseph, Victor Oladipo, and Lance Stephenson all acting as playmakers next to Bojan Bogdanovic and Domantis Sabonis. 

Bogdanovic has been one of the league’s best 3-point shooters since January 31 (after a cold two months), making 68 of his 151 attempts (45 percent), and Sabonis is an excellent rim runner in transition.

Indiana takes and makes more mid-range shots than most NBA teams and is one of the top two in making corner 3s. The Pacers are not a team that relies on getting to the line. Those facts should worry Cleveland, as even if the Cavs are successful at limiting Indiana’s corner 3s it won’t much phase the Pacers' half-court offense (they don’t shoot a lot of 3s) or transition game. 

Cleveland is really a mystery on defense, and with LeBron, the Cavs know almost any lineup they try out can be effective on offense. But if they hope to win this series in five games, they will have to find a group that can get consistent stops. 

One additional item to look for is how Cleveland rebounds after the initial stop. That top Pacers offensive lineup is one of the elite offensive rebounding fivesomes in the league, using those three jets to chase down long rebounds while Sabonis eats up boards near the rim.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

Can Erik Spoelstra make the Sixers pay for having a dominant ball handler who can’t shoot? 

Spoelstra has more experience than any coach in the league at trying to run offenses with stars who are not good perimeter shooters. His Miami teams with Dwyane Wade and Lebron James were amazing on offense despite neither being much of a threat in the postseason as shooters.

Greg Popovich famously went out of his way to have his team back off of them and basically beg them to shoot and not drive, and it almost worked (that was the series that Miami won in seven games). 

Sixers point guard Ben Simmons has the ball in his hands constantly, and his magical passing skills are capable of getting any teammate a better shot than he might otherwise get. His size helps him create passing angles many other guards don’t get. But it’s fair to wonder what Miami has in store for him, as the Heat really don’t have much to lose by trying new things. 

Philly is so inexperienced, from coach to almost every player, and Miami has both Wade and Spoelstra plus the experience of 19 close games this year. Forcing the young Sixers team to deal with a new look from the Heat defense combined with the playoff stress should be expected to have an impact on Philly’s offense. 

One choice Miami likely won’t make is to pressure Simmons on his dribble. Though he is capable of having turnover problems, he is just too quick, powerful, and skilled to be heavily pressured by Miami’s smaller guards. 

Instead, it’s easier to imagine the opposite approach, backing way off of Simmons, inviting the drive, or even just forcing Simmons to think, thus slowing him down. Simmons wants to fly up and down the floor, as his team is top five in the NBA in pace, while Miami prefers it slow and grinding, playing at one of the slowest speeds in the league. Miami really backing off of Philly’s point guard can be utilized when rookie Markelle Fultz is in the game, as well.

The Sixers have dynamic slashers to be sure, but that lack of shooting ability is what the Miami coaches are focused on exploiting in Game 1.

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks

What will Giannis Antetokounmpo do to lead his team to an upset over an injured but exquisitely coached Celtics team? 

For the Bucks to win the series, any four wins will obviously do, but nothing will give them more confidence than knocking off Boston in Game 1. And for that to happen, Giannis has to be as “LeBron-like” as possible. 

The Bucks have talent beyond him, and the Celtics would seem overwhelmed now that Kyrie Irving is out. We saw in April though that Boston as a team is more dangerous than its collection of talent (mostly because Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are so young). Milwaukee will try to take advantage of Giannis’ ability to get to the rim and draw fouls—no East player made more free throws this year than he did. 

The question is, how will the Bucks, and he, accomplish that, as we know Boston’s elite defense will start building a wall right at the rim. If they are going to lose, the Celtics will choose to lose at the hands of someone other than Antetokounmpo dunking. They will force him to see 4-5 bodies in the paint as he drives or posts, and with the uber-athletic Brown having the length and size to at least body him up some, Boston can defend Giannis like few teams can. 

Tatum, too, can at least provide some physical resistance, while Marcus Smart (if healthy) can bother him on the perimeter and make it tough for Giannis to get to the rim. So how will Giannis respond? Will he be content to be more of a playmaker if his teammates struggle? Milwaukee can feature him at power forward and score effectively, but its defenses in those lineups are mostly bad. 

Given Boston’s offensive woes without Irving, we can expect the Bucks to elect to focus on keeping the Celtics scoring down and just hope their offense can generate enough points due to their superior talent on that end. 

That’s what will make this “Giannis Watch” so intriguing. If his path to the rim is more blocked than he is used to—and the foul calls are coming less than he wants—will he look to take more perimeter shots? That’s what Brad Stevens and staff are likely selling to their team now.