This figures to be the most competitive round one in the NBA Playoffs we have seen in some time. Here’s what I will be looking for in the first game of every series in the Western Conference.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz

How is Russell Westbrook going to manage the fourth quarter? 

This looks to be the most competitive of any first-round series, with seven-game potential and multiple overtime games overall. The Thunder are 11-5 with Corey Brewer as a starter, and those losses came by a single point twice, four points twice, and three points once. All to playoff teams. Six wins were against playoff teams including road games at Miami, Toronto, and Houston. 

Utah finished on an 18-4 run, easily one of the hottest teams in the league in 2018. Rudy Gobert anchors a number of elite level defensive lineups for the Jazz, while the Thunder have a top 10 offense led by Russell Westbrook and Paul George, with Steven Adams and a bench surge featuring Jerami Grant. 

These teams match up very evenly, which explains why I will be focused on Westbrook’s decision-making. In OKC’s late-season losses he frequently took quick, low-percentage shots, oftentimes when he could have attacked gaps and then just been a playmaker. It no longer is sound advice to just drive to the hole late in games. Open shots are the goal of great offenses. 

But Westbrook is a sub-30 percent perimeter shooter who is not a great mid-range shooter, either. But he is a foul magnet, so in his case, attacking relentlessly is the answer. Gobert will make things challenging, which is where Adams and now Grant are key. Westbrook can maneuver past either Ricky Rubio or Donovan Mitchell and force the help almost any time he wants. 

The question is, will he take bad shots over them or find open teammates consistently?

In tight games, empty possessions are what kill the losing team. Oklahoma City is the top offensive rebounding team in the NBA but Utah is the fourth-best team on the defensive glass. That only adds more importance to how Westbrook decides to run his offense.

Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs

How committed is Golden State to defending with purpose? 

Last year, Cleveland was one of the worst regular-season defensive teams, before the Cavaliers transformed into a tight and hustling unit in the East playoffs. They were overwhelmed by Golden State but so was everyone else. 

The point is, they remade themselves as a defensive machine. 

Last year, Golden State was the second-best defensive team in the regular season, and this year they have fallen the eighth spot overall, tied with Portland. But as the Trail Blazers ascended to that position over the season after a rough start, the Warriors decayed as the season evolved. 

We all understand why this happened: three straight Finals, two rings, and a target on their backs 82 nights a year for four straight years almost. 

That weight, alone, is enough to cool a team’s defensive passion, especially when, on many nights, its offense still could carry it to a win. We know a team of Golden State's pedigree can turn it around. That doesn’t mean it will happen or that it will reach the level the Warriors need it to this postseason. 

The Spurs are a brilliantly run defensive team with an average offense, minus Kawhi Leonard. In some ways, it’s the perfect first-round opponent for Golden State to start up its defensive engine. Of the eight Western Conference playoff teams, San Antonio had the worst offense all season. In fact, the Spurs ranked 10th overall just in their own conference. They are a poor perimeter shooting team that doesn’t get to the line much, either, and their best offensive player, LaMarcus Aldridge, will spend lots of time being defended by Draymond Green, an elite one-on-one defender. 

They don’t beat themselves with turnovers or bad shots and they will execute their defensive plans well, making Golden State be sharp or risk getting into one-possession games that can be turned into losses. 

San Antonio has a potent lineup with Tony Parker at point alongside Danny Green and Kyle Anderson, with Aldridge and Pau Gasol inside. That lineup excels on defense, too, especially against teams with a traditional center in the game. The inconsistent Warriors team on defense in late March and April will be in danger of losing multiple games this series, knowing Curry may not play or be at 100 percent if he does for some of those games.

Game 1 will tell us a lot about Golden State's abilities to re-energize on that end. Will the Warriors have playoff intensity or will they continue to sleepwalk? 

Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota T-Wolves

Will Minnesota begin to guard corner threes—or any 3s at all?  

Unless Houston goes collectively blind, this is what will keep the series competitive or not. Under Mike D’Antoni, no team comes close to shooting as many 3s as Houston has this season. And the disparity in this statistic between these two teams is huge. 

Minnesota has been a bad defensive team all year, and the Timberwolves are particularly bad at chasing teams out of the corners (the easiest 3) or really from anywhere behind the line. So even though Houston is just an average shooting team from deep they still score over 45 points a game from 3s. That total, against Minnesota, could balloon in one or two games this series. 

So, what can the Timberwolves do? 

They have one excellent defensive lineup, led at the point by a tough yet small Tyus Jones—with Taj Gibson and Gorgui Dieng inside. But it’s a mirage, as that lineup gave up few points but lots of open shots that just ended up missing. They might experiment with that look and others, but it’s more a question of priorities and system than rotation, at least in Game 1. 

If they commit more than two defensive players to solve, for example, the James Harden-Clint Capela pick-and-roll, Houston will destroy them with open shots. 

Sending extra guys to defend that action was once common. It is far less common now, as offenses just have too many other shooters on the court. Harden led the NBA in 3-point shots attempted and Eric Gordon was fourth. The Rockets will park Gordon and his 42 percent mark from 3 opposite the ball screen and dare the T-Wolves to leave him. 

Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins are athletic and tall enough to at least give Harden some trouble on the ball, and Gibson/Karl-Anthony Towns should be able to help some and recover back to Capela’s rim run after the screen. That they have been so ineffective all season, though, despite that talent, is cause for alarm. 

If they can’t figure something out to contest 3s better, they will be down 0-2 very quickly.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Can Anthony Davis be LeBron James and take an inferior team to the next round? 

Portland joins Utah as perhaps the two best teams of the past six weeks or so (not counting Houston, which has been dominated for months). The Trail Blazers guard shooters behind 3 at a high level and protect the rim perhaps better than anyone. Damian Lillard is one of the top offensive guards in the world, and Portland expertly runs its offense with few turnovers and good perimeter shooting combined with the third-highest free-throw percentage in the league. 

The Trail Blazers didn’t play great the final two weeks of the season when Maurice Harkless went down to an injury, and his timetable to return is unknown at present. That, plus Davis, makes this series absolutely up for grabs. 

As good as Portland is, especially with Harkless, Davis will be the best player on the court most of the time. And that is what bears studying. How much better can he be than everyone, and how long can he put it together? 

When the Pelicans lost DeMarcus Cousins for the season, Davis quickly announced he had to go “Russell Westbrook” and he did just that, doing everything it took to push his team to the six seed. To win a series like this, he has to go one step better. Davis has grown into an elite bucket getter, with touch, craft, skill, and an understanding of how to put those things together. 

He seals early in transition, attacking seams before shooting soft floaters, receiving pick-and-roll lobs, and taking perimeter shots, too.

He is now good enough to score 40-plus points as an average in a series, possibly forcing defenses to send two and three guys toward him. If that happens, it will be his teammates who will need to make shots. But if Davis isn’t that kind of assertive, where he is demanding the ball almost every possession, it will be far harder for the Pelicans to win four times. 

New Orleans started playing faster once Cousins went out, and that new pace (the Pelicans ended the season with the fastest pace in the NBA) helps them in this matchup. Portland likes it slower, to better enable them to pick apart defenses with its small but excellent backcourt. And it helps the Trail Blazers get Jusuf Nurkic parked down low, which is why Davis will want to race early and get touches inside before the giant Nurkic arrives. 

It won’t be just transition, though, that can help Davis carry his team. It’s going to need to be everything in the half court, too. Just like LeBron has done for years.