Philadelphia 76ers Centerpiece Joel Embiid Is Dominating The NBA

Philadelphia 76ers Centerpiece Joel Embiid Is Dominating The NBA

The Philadelphia 76ers have certainly had their ups and downs, but one thing is now crystal clear: Joel Embiid is dominating the NBA.

Dec 13, 2018 by Fri Lavey
Philadelphia 76ers Centerpiece Joel Embiid Is Dominating The NBA

Despite all the uncertainties nagging the Philadelphia 76ers front office, the nerve issues (both mental and physical) of their 2017 first overall pick, the apparent regression of their 2016 first overall pick and questions about the fit of their temperamental mid-season All-star acquisition, one thing is certain, Joel Embiid is dominating the NBA. 

So far this season, he is averaging 26.3 points, 13.1 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 3.6 assists per game. Not only are those career highs in points, rebounds and assists, those are numbers that only three pretty spectacular players in history have ever averaged over the course of a season: Kareem Abdul-Jabar, Shaquille O’Neal and Hakeem Olajuwon. And unlike 2000-01 Shaq or 1993 Hakeem (both of who led their teams to championships that season), Embiid is not limited to scoring in the post, but spreads the floor, taking 4.1 threes per game. With numbers this historic, are we sure that Joel Embiid’s odds shouldn’t be higher than 8:1 on the list of MVP favorites?

The question with Joel Embiid has never been talent, but always whether or not he could stay on the court. After missing his first two seasons with a myriad of injuries, he was named to the NBA All-Rookie First Team in 2016-17, despite playing only 31 games. Surprisingly, his stats per 36 minutes this season aren’t actually all that different this season from previous years.

Check out Embiid's stats per 36 minutes:

SeasonAgeGGSMPFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%2P2PA2P%
2016-172231317869.219.60.471.64.50.377.515.20.495
2017-1823636319129.619.90.481.240.318.415.90.527
2018-192427279258.919.40.461.24.30.297.715.10.508

SeasonGFTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKPFPTS
2016-17318.711.20.782.88.311.131.23.55.128.7
2017-18636.88.80.772.710.3133.70.82.13.927.2
2018-19278.510.80.792.311.513.83.70.52.13.627.6

But what has changed is that he is increasing his minutes per game, 34.3 per game compared to 30.3 and 25.4 in previous seasons, and he has sustained this workload over the course of 27 out of 28 possible games. The fact that he has been able to maintain his All-Star level of production in the face of the increased fatigue and wear that comes with a larger sample size should vault his MVP candidacy from the realm of the merely hypothetical. What was once his biggest weakness, missed games and reduced minutes, has actually been among his strengths this season, especially in comparison to some of the other top candidates: Steph Curry has already missed 12 games this season, Kawhi is resting on the second night of back-to-backs and LeBron appeared to be coasting during his first month in a Lakers uniform.

But in comparing Joel Embiid’s 2018-19 season to his previous two, we see that while minutes have increased, this does seem to have come at the cost of some of his efficiency. Joel is averaging career lows in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Although he is shooting more than four threes a game, his is really only a nominal 3-point threat, knocking down less than 30% of those shots. 

However, these simple counting stats may be a bit deceiving. If we dig a little deeper, we see that even on a per-possession basis this season, he has actually taken a step forward on offense. His true shooting percentage (a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account 2-point, 3-point and free throw attempts) has remained the same as last season, .57, but his offensive rating (an estimate of points produced per 100 possessions with a player on the floor) has skyrocketed from 106 last season to 112 this season. 

Much of this increase in efficiency can be attributed to him limiting his turnovers, down from 4.4/36 minutes last season to 3.3 this season; increasing his rate of getting to the line, up from 8.8/36 minutes last season to 10.8 this season; and improving his free throw percentage, from 76.9% last season to 79.1% this season. Joel is currently leading the league in free throw attempts per game by quite a wide margin, which is valuable from not only an offensive efficiency standpoint, but also is effective in relegating other team’s best players to the bench. 

What really separates Joel Embiid’s MVP candidacy from the competition though is his domination on both sides of the floor. Among players averaging more than 25 minutes per game this season, Embiid trails only Hassan Whiteside and Tristan Thompson in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage at the rim. 

2018-19 MVP Candidates Defensive Stats
PlayerGPMINWLSTLBLKDREBDFGMDFGADFG%
Joel Embiid2734.21890.52.010.94.17.753.1
Kawhi Leonard2234.71661.90.77.01.42.654.4
Giannis Antetokounmpo2433.91681.51.310.61.83.355.1
LeBron James2734.917101.30.86.81.62.858.7
Anthony Davis2536.914111.72.88.94.17.058.9

When comparing him to some of the other top MVP candidates, Embiid’s defensive impact still stands out. He is contesting more shots, grabbing more rebounds and holding opponents to a lower field goal percentage than any of these other perennial First Team All-Defense Players. 

While we should still be cautiously optimistic about Embiid’s ability to stay on the floor, so far this season, it looks like his back has proved strong enough to carry the Sixers on both sides of the floor and vault himself into the MVP conversation


Fri Lavey is a writer and consultant who studied economics and statistics at Harvard University. He has previously worked as a data analyst for the NBA, the MLB, and the Philadelphia 76ers.