Reseeding The Sweet 16

Reseeding The Sweet 16

After 48 games, only 16 teams are left. FloHoops reseeded these teams based on their performance so far.

Mar 27, 2019 by Jayson Kaufman
Reseeding The Sweet 16

With the first weekend of the tournament completed and the madness settling, we’re down to the final 16 teams in the country. Aside from Oregon, no other team seeded lower than five made it to the second weekend. Yet, every team has a solid chance to advance to the Final Four, making reseeding the bracket very difficult. The teams' seeds are based largely on their performance over the first weekend of the tournament and upcoming matchups.

16. Oregon            

The Pac-12 tournament champions probably surprised everyone outside of Eugene with their play. The Ducks are clicking at the most opportune time, cruising through their conference tournament and their first two matchups against Wisconsin and UC Irvine. Even without the big freshman Bol Bol, the squad has plenty of four- and-five-star talent on its roster. Oregon could make the Final Four, but the road is tough, having to face Virginia next, who is ranked first in the Kenpom rankings and top five in defense.

15. Virginia Tech

The Hokies took care of business by beating two double-digit seeded teams, but the next matchup against Duke will be difficult. Virginia Tech is shooting very well from behind the 3-point line so far in the tournament, hitting around 42 percent. If they can continue shooting well, they can beat Duke again and advance. However, the Hokies are thin in the frontcourt, with Kerry Blackshear being the only true big man. They give up a lot of rebounds, and their zone defense allows a lot of threes. Virginia Tech will struggle against a team with a lot of shooters or dominant big men.

14. LSU

LSU is not short on talent at all. The Tigers relied on that talent to pull out a two-point win over Maryland. While talent may be enough to lead the team to victory in the early stages of the tournament, every team left in the field is very talented. The big asterisk on this team is that it is playing pretty much without a head coach and it shows. Opponents are outscoring LSU in the second half 83-65. This is the effect of solid coaching on opposing teams, and LSU will have to beat a Tom Izzo-coached Michigan State team and potentially Mike Krzyzewski’s Duke squad.

13. Florida State

Florida State is very athletic and that’s definitely given them the edge in some games, but they are not a very good shooting team. They are shooting 45 percent from the field and 36 percent from behind the 3-point line, which ranks in the bottom four among teams left in the field. The Seminoles shot 38 percent from the field in their opening game of the tournament, then turned it around and shot 50 percent against Murray State. During the regular season, they were not very consistent in their field goal percentage and playing against Gonzaga, which is a top 10 team in terms of defensive field goal percentage, I don’t see Florida State continuing the hot shooting from its last game.

12. Auburn

Auburn didn’t get off to the best start against New Mexico State but came out with a one-point win in one of the more exciting games of the first weekend. Any doubts anyone might have had about the Tigers were put to rest after they beat Kansas comfortably. The Tigers are shooting 41 percent from three, which is third among all of the teams in the field. They also lead the field in steals per game in the tournament but commit the most fouls. Auburn is terrible on the rebounding front, ranking 66th out of the 68 teams in the tournament. They’ll be overwhelmed by North Carolina’s rebounding ability.

11. Houston

It’s so tough to score against Houston: The Cougars have one of the best defensive field goal percentages in the country. They also have a dynamic duo in Corey Davis and Armani Brooks. They shoot 38 percent from three but as a team, they rank second to last (behind LSU), shooting 27 percent. Houston will have to figure out how to score outside of those two in order to advance.

10. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders have an elite defense and force a lot of turnovers. Jarrett Culver is establishing himself as a lottery pick in this year’s NBA draft. The team shoots 33 percent from three, which is very average. Texas Tech needs to get more out of Davide Moretti (0-7 from three the first two games) if it wants to make it to the third weekend.

9. Duke

The No. 1 overall seed is still a big threat to win it all, but it is hard to overlook the UCF game where UCF had a very good chance of winning. Losing Tacko Fall to foul trouble and getting very lucky that UCF missed both a layup and a putback attempt led to Duke squeaking out a win. They still aren’t consistent shooting from three and shooting 10-25 against UCF almost led to an early exit. They need to hit their threes, especially since their next game is against Virginia Tech, a good 3-point shooting team.

8. Kentucky

If PJ Washington was healthy and able to play, Kentucky would be higher on this list since this season’s success was due to his improved play. Kentucky would need him back and Tyler Herro to improve his shooting if it hopes to cut the nets in Minneapolis. Kentucky is a good defensive team, and if the Wildcats can continue the suffocating 3-point defense they showed against the most prolific 3-point shooter in NCAA history in Fletcher Magee and Wofford, they can go far.

7. Michigan

Michigan always has a great defense, but the Wolverines also don’t foul, which is a sign of a truly good defense. The Wolverines don’t put the opponents on the free-throw line, so they have to earn every point. Their matchup against Texas Tech should be a great defensive game. The issue is that when Michigan can score, it is one of the best teams in the country, but the Wolverines go cold scoring at times. That can’t happen if they expect to return to the national title game.

6. Tennessee

Tennessee’s inside game is one of the best in the country, and that’s a big reason for its success this season. In addition to the Volunteers' inside game, their interior defense, anchored by Kyle Alexander and John Fulkner, is a top 20 team in terms of block percentage and 2-point field goal percentage. The Volunteers have been pushed to the brink by both teams they've faced so far in the tournament. Tennessee blew a 25-point lead to Iowa and allowed Colgate to make 15 3-pointers. Both of those things can’t happen again, or else Tennessee is on the next flight home. The Vols will be tested by any good 3-point shooting team, which Purdue is.

5. Michigan State

The Spartans are solid on the defensive end, but their offense hasn’t been on par with their regular season. Thirteen assists per tournament game is nothing to scoff at, but over the regular season, they averaged nearly 19. They are still one of the best passing teams in the country; they just have to get back to their offensive identity. They also need to reduce turnovers in order to move on. The Spartans turned the ball over 22 times against Minnesota. While that game was a 20-point victory, turning the ball over that much will put the Spartans in a hole.

4. Purdue

Purdue has been red-hot these past two games. The Boilermakers beat Old Dominion at their own game, winning by 13 points. Then Carsen Edwards came alive, breaking his scoring slump to drop 42 points against the defending champ Villanova and 68 points over the first two games. Edwards has put the team on his back over the season, and if his scoring spike is here to stay along with the Boilermakers' 3-point defense from the first two games, Purdue will be in Minneapolis.

3. North Carolina

North Carolina can rebound—that’s undeniable. The Tar Heels out-rebounded their first two opponents by 50! Nassir Little is an NBA-caliber player who is scoring nearly 20 points per game and Luke Maye is pulling down 12 rebounds a game. While the team is solid in the interior, it is very susceptible to the deep ball, allowing opponents to make a third of attempts over the regular season. UNC can’t allow opponents to bury it with threes if the Tar Heels want to cut the nets down.

2. Virginia

Virginia is the top-ranked team in the Kenpom rankings and consistently a top-five team in terms of defense. The Cavs rarely turn the ball over and are shooting 50 percent from the field. While they’re shooting well from the field, they are shooting 29 percent from three over the tournament when the Cavaliers were making 40 percent of them over the regular season. This is an elite defense and if they can find their shooting stroke, Minneapolis is the next destination.

1. Gonzaga

The Bulldogs can put points on the board in a hurry. They scored nearly 89 points per game over the regular season and are scoring 85 points per game in the tournament so far. They were the only No. 1 seed to not trail against the 16 seed and easily handled Fairleigh Dickinson. Brandon Clarke is making name for himself and driving his NBA stock up after collecting 36 points, eight rebounds, and five blocks against Baylor. Clarke has more blocked shots this year than he does missed shots (107 to 105). This team has very few faults and probably should have been the No. 1 overall seed at the beginning of the tournament.